The Phillies are reportedly major players in the Aramis Ramirez sweepstakes and are actively shopping Placido Polanco to make room.
The news came out of nowhere, which isn’t shocking at all given how stealthily this front office has operated under Amaro’s leadership.
Ramirez is a power-hitting third baseman with a career .284/.342/.500 line and 315 home runs. He’ll prove costly, with a projected contract in the realm of four years and $60 million, but he would represent a significant offensive upgrade over Placido Polanco. The major issue with bringing Ramirez into the fold is that the Phillies wouldn’t have any money left over to pay Jimmy Rollins without surpassing the $178 million luxury tax threshold. Since that is an unlikely scenario, it’s safe to suggest that signing Ramirez would spell the end of the Rollins era of Phillies baseball.
But would effectively swapping Rollins for Ramirez really hurt the team?
The answer to that million-dollar question lies with one’s confidence in prospect Freddy Galvis. If the Phillies sign Ramirez and bid farewell to Rollins, then Galvis is going to start the season at shortstop barring unforeseen circumstances.
The youngster is a highly reputed fielder with raw offensive skills that don’t really translate to major league success at this juncture. However, if he is truly a defensive maven, then it’s entirely possible that the offensive upgrade of Ramirez over Polanco could more than offset the value difference between Rollins and Galvis.
It’s a risky proposition, for sure, since Galvis could struggle mightily at the plate and perform only adequately in the field. The Phillies are generally solid at evaluating talent, however, and wouldn’t even consider this type of game plan if they weren’t convinced Galvis was ready on some level. Amaro hasn’t hidden his feelings on Galvis in the past, and while his initial comments were brushed aside as an example of him trying to gain leverage over Rollins, perhaps we were mistaken. Perhaps the front office really believes that Galvis is not only the shortstop of the future, but of the present as well.
Rollins is probably going to hover around 3-3.5 WAR over the next few seasons. Polanco has had some prominent health issues over the last couple of seasons which have sapped his offensive ability. However, Polanco has fielded so incredibly well that he has still produced an average of almost 3.5 WAR per season with the Phillies.
Galvis is clearly an unknown, but if he plays solid defense over a full major league season it’s hard to see him finishing south of 1.5 WAR. Ramirez produced 3.6 WAR last season and, in a good offensive year, typically finishes in that vicinity of production.
On paper, Rollins and Polanco project to perform better than Galvis and Ramirez next season, but the future is murky beyond that.
Polanco has a mutual option on his deal for 2013, but it’s unlikely the Phillies view him as an everyday starter anymore. They don’t have a typical third base prospect in the system, with Galvis really being the only 2B/SS/3B relatively close to the big leagues. Hitters like Ramirez don’t become available every season, and the Phillies probably view this as their chance to make a substantial upgrade at a position for the foreseeable future. Offensively, Ramirez is clearly an upgrade over Polanco. Defensively, not so much, and at the end of the day, it’s almost a value wash slightly favoring Ramirez.
The deal would, however, alter the complexion of the team, as the defense would noticeably suffer. It’s the type of hypothetical swap that feels more significant than it actually is because of how tremendous Polanco’s glove has been at the hot corner. Replacing his bat with one more capable is a plus, but that difference is offset defensively.
In any event, can you even imagine an opening day lineup featuring Ty Wigginton at first, Chase Utley at second, Galvis at shortstop and Ramirez at third base? I’m not entirely sure which avenue I would prefer, but at the moment I’m still leaning towards sticking with Rollins. Then again, I admittedly don’t know all that much about Galvis and have never seen him play. While I’m not completely risk-averse, it’s unclear whether right now is when the Phillies should play with fire in hoping Galvis pans out.
On the plus side, there will be far fewer ground balls in high-leverage situations this year.
Ramirez isn’t going to get 4 years. I’d say 3 would be max as this will be his age 34 season. This might also be a way to get Rollins to relent on the 4th year if he thinks the Phillies are serious about moving on without him.
I also see it as a potential ploy, but I can see some team giving Ramirez four years. If not the Phils, maybe the Angels or Tigers.
Ugh, Amaro makes me want to tear my hair out!
Please just stick with Rollins and Polanco, and not sign Ramirez who isn’t any younger than Jimmy and only a few years younger than Polanco?
Totally not worth blowing up the team over, so let’s just hope this never happens.
My main problem is this: Why is Amaro willing to take a huge risk on someone (Galvis) who only became a name last year and can’t hit all that much at a hugely important position, yet he won’t take a risk on a player (Brown) who has been talked about as elite since 2009 and plays a much less critical position, thus limiting his potential downside? It’s infuriating and one of the reasons I wish Amaro wasn’t our GM.
One thing to keep in mind is that we aren’t privy to everything in the Phils org. They may have the majority of scouts sour on Brown, and while we think it’s a travesty he hasn’t been given more of a shot, the front office might feel differently. That isn’t to say we should always trust their judgment, but rather that in your scenario it’s probably likely that those in the front office see something “x-factorish” in Galvis that was lacking in Brown.
valid points as usual Eric, but it just makes me seriously question the Phillies evaluation metrics
No I’m with you. Believe me, I’ve scratched my head at plenty of their moves. But given the way Brown has been handled, I want to believe there is something they’re seeing that we aren’t, and it’s not just going to be something regrettable in five years.
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I am just hoping this whole Ramirez thing blows over, and I still view Galvis as a utility man at best unless he miraculously learns to hit for a reasonably high average since he certainly doesn’t have any power or high OBP to fall back on.
I, like most everyone else, haven’t seen much of Galvis. But I think he’d be better than adequate defensively. There’s a tradeoff in favor of Jimmy’s experience, but a comparison could be as close as this season where Galvis’s athleticism offsets that. I’m not as untrusting of Amaro and Company as most come across. At I think the Thome press conference, maybe Papelbon, Ruben said the front office was split on Galvis. Some thinking he was ready now, others not. This really might have nothing to do with Galvis’s longer term potential, but when I think of the way Larry Bowa worked his way to 2200 big league hits, the way he looked as a hitter when he came up, it alleviates concerns about Galvis, even if the goal is to win now, and not 2 years from now.
I’m inclined to think the Ramirez Galvis lineup is the way to go.
Headed to the winter meetings tomorrow. Properly excited about the first time experience.
Talk about random musings by the Philly brass. I for one hope it’s just a ploy in the Rollins soap opera. I’d like to look at A-Ram’s glossy career slash of .284/.342/.500, but I’d be hard-pressed to ignore the fact that he’s been among the most polarizing regarding home/away splits as several Cubbies have been (see D-Lee). I won’t get into the whole park factor bit, but Wrigley has unquestionably benefited A-Ram throughout his career. He sports a good but not great .274/.328/.484 Away slash. In fact over the last 4 seasons, he’s hit only .248 outside of Wrigley. And in his limited run at the Bank, has fared somewhat dismally with .247/.300/.473. Also, let’s not forget (as was mentioned before) he will be turning 34; meaning we’re not likely to see much if any improvement. So on those notes alone, I’d prefer the tried and true method with Rollins despite however much I’d likely regret his deal. It’s a lose-lose scenario in my opinion, but the lesser evil (in my eyes) appears to be the one with Rollins and not A-Ram.
Consider this – what is Galvis’ expected batting line if he starts? Is it that much different than Valdez? I know Valdez would cost about $500K more (big deal). Believe me, I’d hate to have him starting, but honestly, it doesn’t seem they would produce much differently offensively or defensively.
Per Baseball Think Factory:
Galvis – .261 .299 .359
Valdez – .253 .298 .336
Can someone explain to me why prospects are left in the minors so long? Wouldn’t the best way to assimilate them to major league pitching and situations is to put them in the majors? They can hit minor league balls for only so long until they need the top stuff…So even if Rollins comes back, why not bring up Galvis and give him some starts and pinch hitting opportunities? Same with Brown…Why don’t we keep him here so we ultimately know what we have, instead of jerking him around between AAA and the Majors.
Regarding your idea with Galvis, where a prospect is brought up to pinch hit and spot play: This keeps the player from seeing professional pitching every day and staying in a rhythm, which an everyday player can do. This wastes their time largely riding the bench when they could be further honing skills or refining their approach (two strike approach, consistent swing mechanics, handling breaking pitches). Not to mention keeping them on the 25 man roster eats up their valuable pre-arbitration time and their costs would rise substantially. Also, as is the case with Brown, he is switching from playing RF to LF since Pence is here, and he struggled with some of the instinctual aspects of OF play (jumps on balls, reading off the bat, etc.) Better that he makes those mistakes learning in the minors and playing everyday than sitting on a big league bench.
Each case is different, and players are sometimes pegged as a future bench/utility guy, but with Brown and Galvis the hope is they become starters, so it seems the Phils are looking to make them close to a finished product so they can be thrust into starting roles and succeed. I agree with you that they should learn to take some lumps at the major league level, as Brown has in his stints, but with a “win now” team, it’s harder to justify that, at least for the front office.
I’m sure there are aspects that I didn’t cover, but it’s at least something to chew on.
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Neither Kevin Kennedy or Peter Gammons gave positive reactions today when I asked them about a potential Ramirez acquisition at today’s winter meetings visit. I’d describe both reactions as pretty convictional, too. Mike Ferrin expressed the opinion that Ramirez would hit 40 homers at the Bank (don’t get excited…he didn’t say into his age 36 and 37 seasons), and thinks he’s actually not an attitude problem, just aloof to the team camaradarie approach.
It looks to me like Milwaukee might grab him anyway, and the Phils might have a safety net of non tendered types should Jimmy leave.
A lot of talk on twitter tonight about Madson and KRod feeling pressure to accept arbitration tonight with the deadline closing, and closing spots vanishing with another Alex Anthopolis trade today. I’ll put it this way. If Madson accepts arbitration, I will most eagerly await his/Boras’s explanation of the logic behind it. I STILL say no possible way. He couldn’t possibly get less per year, times 3 than he would in arbitration, which would just be for 1 year, and there’s no forseeable way he’d get a chance to showcase closing abilities that would make it worth taking a short term hit for long term gain. Maybe he’d get as high as 9 in arbitration, and worse case scenario, Boras sells a club on moving their closer to set up, and paying Madson 9 mil. Boras might have a hard time talking his way to 4 years, but he’ll get his AAV somehow.
“…and there’s no forseeable way he’d get a chance to showcase closing abilities that would make it worth taking a short term hit for long term gain…”
There is a foreseeable (and even likely) way he’d get a chance to showcase his closing abilities…if the Phillies trade him for prospects. The market of teams willing to pay $9M for one year of a closer is greater than those willing to commit to multiple years. I would think that teams like Boston, LAA, SD and maybe even Minnesota – I know they re-signed Matt Capps – would be interested. When Rafael Soriano accepted Atlanta’s arbitration offer two years ago, the Braves immediately traded him to Tampa Bay, who used him as a closer, which enabled Soriano to get his 3 year deal from the Yankees. Maybe, if Boras sees no buyers, he’ll go this route and try to force the Phils to trade Madson rather than pay him $9M as a set-up man.
That’s tomorrow’s article that I just wrote. HOLD YOUR HORSES GUYS!
Eric,
Clearly, you never heard of never put off til tomorrow what you can do today. But okay. Saw Ferrin at the winter meetings today (first time meeting), and my closing line was I will tell the Seidmans hello for you. Done. And if hk is reading this, I’ll sneak preview by saying I still love ya, but I disgree with your point. Nuf said for now.
The feeling is mutual.
There — I posted it. Damn smart commenters always talking logically about stuff we’re covering the next day (further mutterings under breath).